Rates and the Fed

Federal Reserve decisions and speeches, Treasury yields, and the inflation and jobs data behind the rate path.

32 items in 15 issues, Oct 25, 2026 to Nov 9, 2026, newest first. Each item links to the issue it ran in, where its sources are listed.

November 2026

Mon, Nov 9 · Credit & the economy
Consumer credit. Total consumer credit grew at a seasonally adjusted 6.4% annualized rate in September, up from 1.9% in August and 4.1% in July, the Federal Reserve's G.19 report showed Friday. It was the fastest pace since November 2022 in the Fed's revised data and about double the 3.0% average of the past four quarters (2.1%, 2.6%, 3.1% and 4.2%). Monthly readings swing widely. Third-quarter growth was 4.2% annualized, with revolving credit up 4.1% and nonrevolving up 4.2%.
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Mon, Nov 9 · Credit & the economy
Interest rates. The average rate on card accounts assessed interest rose to 22.36% in the third quarter from 22.15% in the second, preliminary Fed data show. That is down 0.47 percentage point from 22.83% a year earlier. Across all card accounts, the average slipped to 21.19% from 21.39% a year earlier. Over the same span, rates on new 60-month car loans eased to 7.54% from 7.64%, and rates on 24-month personal loans climbed to 11.90% from 11.14%.
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Mon, Nov 9 · Credit & the economy
Tuesday: household debt. The New York Fed releases its third-quarter Household Debt and Credit Report Tuesday at 11 a.m. ET, adding delinquency data to Friday's G.19 balances. Its second-quarter report put credit card balances at $1.26 trillion, up $21 billion, and total household debt at $18.77 trillion. In the second quarter, an annualized 6.97% of card balances moved into serious delinquency (90 days or more), up from 6.93% a year earlier.
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Mon, Nov 9 · Banks & charters
Rate watch. Rate watch tracks what savers earn and how much money sits in each bucket, the other side of the card rates above.Savings and other liquid deposits: Balances were $10.44 trillion in September, down from $10.87 trillion a year earlier. The FDIC's national average savings rate was 0.38% in October, down from 0.40% a year earlier. Online banks pay far more. EverBank pays 4.20% APY on new Performance Savings accounts, and Openbank, Santander's digital bank, pays 4.00% (4.35% for new customers' first six months), both as posted Nov. 9. SoFi pays 3.30% with direct deposit (as of Oct. 20), and Ally pays 3.20% (as of Nov. 5).CDs (small time deposits): Balances were $1.51 trillion in September, down from $1.52 trillion a year earlier. The national average 12-month CD rate was 1.76% in October, up from 1.68% a year earlier; Ally's High Yield CD pays 2.90% APY (as of Nov. 5).Money market funds: Assets were $8.02 trillion in the week ended Nov. 4, up from $7.53 trillion a year earlier, including $3.12 trillion in retail funds. These uninsured funds pay more than most bank savings accounts. The Crane 100 index of the largest funds had a seven-day yield of 3.75% as of Nov. 8, compared with 3.58% at the end of 2025.Biggest low-rate deposit bases: JPMorgan Chase's consumer bank held $1.10 trillion of average deposits in the third quarter, up 4% from a year earlier, and earned a 2.78% margin on them. JPMorgan does not disclose a consumer rate paid. Bank of America's Consumer Banking unit held $948.6 billion of average deposits, little changed from $947.4 billion a year earlier. It paid an average rate of 0.51% on them, compared with 1.49% across all of BofA's deposits.The shift: Over the past year, savings and other liquid deposits fell about $422 billion while money market fund assets grew about $481 billion. Deposit balances fell about $822 billion in November and December 2025 alone and have since recovered about $338 billion.Deposit balances are Federal Reserve H.6 data, seasonally adjusted; rates are each bank's posted rate or FDIC monthly averages.
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Sun, Nov 8 · The week ahead
Household debt. The New York Fed publishes its third-quarter Household Debt and Credit Report Tuesday at 11:00 a.m. ET, with a Liberty Street Economics post on newly delinquent card borrowers.
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Sun, Nov 8 · The week ahead
Fed speakers. Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks on community banking Monday at 8:40 a.m. ET and on supervision and regulation Friday at 10:50 a.m. ET. Gov. Christopher Waller gives an economic outlook in London on Tuesday, and Gov. Michael Barr speaks on AI and inequality Thursday at 10:00 a.m. ET.
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Sun, Nov 8 · Worth a read
Debit fees in court. American Banker's Kyle Campbell argues that the Eighth Circuit's Corner Post ruling makes a lower debit fee cap close to certain, but not soon. The court found that the Fed's 2011 cap counted costs the Durbin Amendment doesn't allow. He maps the next steps, from a pending Sixth Circuit appeal of a ruling that went the Fed's way to a possible Supreme Court review.
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Sat, Nov 7 · Opening balance
Carried over. Sen. Elizabeth Warren had asked the Justice Department to open a criminal probe of Bank of America over its $1.21 billion anti-money laundering penalty, with a reply requested by Nov. 12. The Fed could seek a rehearing within 45 days after the Eighth Circuit vacated its 21-cent debit interchange cap on Oct. 26, and the FTC and eight states had sued Toast over hidden fees.
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Sat, Nov 7 · Charges
Hike risk. Traders raised the odds of a December rate hike to 78% from 70% after Friday's jobs data, Reuters reported. The 2-yr yield ended the week at 4.51% and the 10-yr at 4.86%.
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Sat, Nov 7 · Credits
Mood lifts. The University of Michigan's preliminary November consumer sentiment index climbed to 51.0 from 48.0 in October, a gain of about 6%, though it remains 10% below February. Year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.3% from 4.7%.
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Sat, Nov 7 · Closing balance
Tuesday, Nov. 10. The Labor Department releases the October consumer price index at 8:30 a.m. ET, the next test for a December hike. At 11:00 a.m. ET the New York Fed publishes its third-quarter Household Debt and Credit Report, alongside a Liberty Street Economics post on newly delinquent card borrowers.
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Sat, Nov 7 · Worth a read
Who sets card APRs. In a New York Fed Liberty Street Economics post, Kyle Herkenhoff and Juan M. Morelli study about 14 million new card accounts and find that lenders with large local market shares pass less of a drop in funding costs through to offer rates. After the Fed's surprise cut in January 2008, pass-through was about 20% lower in a lender's high-share markets.
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Fri, Nov 6 · The big story: October jobs beat forecasts
Wages. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% from September to $38.00, above the 0.3% expected, and were up 3.1% from a year earlier. That annual pace is likely still below inflation.
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Fri, Nov 6 · The big story: October jobs beat forecasts
The Fed. Traders lifted the odds of a December rate hike to 78% from 70% before the data, according to Reuters, and the 2-yr yield rose 5 bp to 4.52% soon after the release. The Fed held its range at 3.75% to 4% on Oct. 28 with two officials dissenting in favor of a hike, and Peter Cardillo told Reuters the report "just confirms that the Fed has no choice but to raise rates in December."
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Fri, Nov 6 · Banks & charters
OppFi. Subprime lender OppFi withdrew its applications with the OCC, Fed and FDIC to buy Arizona's BNC National Bank for $130 million, blaming a "lack of clearly articulated standards." Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Chris Van Hollen, who had called its model "predatory," welcomed the move, the second such retreat after Enova dropped its Grasshopper Bank bid.
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Thu, Nov 5 · Policy & enforcement
Midterm fallout. Democratic control of Congress "hurts the direction of travel in the bank space," TD Securities analyst Scott Siefers said, as hopes for bank-friendly bills fade. CFPB nominee Brian Johnson cleared committee in September but still needs a floor vote before Congress adjourns, and UBS's Jonathan Pringle noted the Senate can now block Fed nominees.
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Thu, Nov 5 · Worth a read
Banks after the sweep. Forbes' Mayra Rodriguez Valladares lays out how Democrats could press big banks on lending to nonbank financial firms, about $1 trillion or 6% of assets, and revive rate caps, while noting Congress "cannot independently rewrite Federal Reserve capital regulations through oversight hearings."
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Wed, Nov 4 · The big story: Democrats take Congress
The Fed. A Democratic Senate makes it harder for President Trump to place allies at the Fed, and Warren plans to press Chair Kevin Warsh, whose policymakers have been raising rates to fight inflation. Reuters adds that Democratic control could complicate Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman's plan to consolidate bank supervision and the GENIUS Act stablecoin rules.
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Wed, Nov 4 · Worth a read
Wise and AML. Jason Mikula's Fintech Business Weekly argues growth-first fintechs push compliance costs onto customers, drawing on Wise restricting his and other EU businesses' accounts without notice, which he ties to anti-money laundering remediation. It also covers the Eighth Circuit ruling against the Fed's debit fee cap.
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Wed, Nov 4 · Worth a read
Fed guardrails. Reuters' Howard Schneider walks through how a Democratic Senate changes the fight over the Fed's independence, from confirmations to the effort to remove Governor Lisa Cook.
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Mon, Nov 2 · Policy & enforcement
Debit cap. The Eighth Circuit vacated the Fed's 21-cent debit interchange cap on Oct 26; the Fed has 45 days to seek a rehearing by the full court or can petition the Supreme Court. A parallel case is pending in the Sixth Circuit, and the ruling conflicts with a 2014 D.C. Circuit decision.
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Sun, Nov 1 · The week ahead
Rate path. St. Louis Fed's Musalem said Friday that "additional firming of monetary policy will be necessary, and soon," which puts more weight on Friday's jobs report before the Dec 8-9 meeting.
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Sun, Nov 1 · Also this week
Amex risk chief. Amex named Jodi Richard, U.S. Bank's chief risk officer since 2018, as chief risk officer and head of global risk and compliance, effective Jan 25, 2027, reporting to CEO Stephen Squeri. It follows a $350M civil penalty and Fed and OCC actions this month over anti-money-laundering failures; current CRO Doug Tabish moves to run enterprise shared services.
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October 2026

Sat, Oct 31 · Credit & the economy
Fed: hikes "soon". St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem told the Shadow Open Market Committee on Oct 30: "I judge that additional firming of monetary policy will be necessary, and soon." The Fed held at 3.75%-4.00% this week after raising in September, with two members dissenting for a hike; markets expect a move at the Dec 8-9 meeting.
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Fri, Oct 30 · Policy & enforcement
Debit fee cap struck down. On Oct 26 the Eighth Circuit unanimously upheld a lower-court ruling that invalidated Regulation II, the Fed's debit interchange cap (Corner Post v. Fed). It found the Fed counted fixed costs that the Durbin Amendment excludes. The 21-cent cap stays until the court issues its mandate, and the Fed must write a new formula. A Sixth Circuit case heard Oct 22 could split the circuits.
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Fri, Oct 30 · Credit & the economy
September PCE. Released Oct 29. Headline PCE rose 0.5% on the month and 3.6% on the year (Aug 3.4%); core 3.1% (Aug 3.0%). The saving rate fell to 3.8% from 4.0%.
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Thu, Oct 29 · Credit & the economy
Fed holds, two dissents. The FOMC held the funds rate at 3.75-4.00% on Oct 28 in a 10-2 vote. Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Hammack dissented in favor of a hike. The statement says inflation "remains elevated" and that the Committee "will deliver price stability." Chair Warsh gave no firm signal on December. Markets now price about 85% odds of a hike on Dec 9.
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Wed, Oct 28 · Credit & the economy
Fed decision today. The FOMC announces at 2pm ET. Markets price a ~91% chance of a hold at 3.75-4.00%, and about 73% odds of a hike in December. Treasury yields ticked higher this morning, with the 10-yr near 5.00%.
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Wed, Oct 28 · Credit & the economy
Confidence rebounds. The Conference Board index rose 7.5 points to 91.7 in October, its first gain in four months and highest since June. Present Situation rose to 120.4 and Expectations to 72.6. 12-month inflation expectations eased to 5.8%. But plans to buy big-ticket items and services fell.
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Tue, Oct 27 · Credit & the economy
Fed meeting begins. The FOMC meets today and tomorrow, with the decision at 2pm ET Wednesday. Markets price a ~91% chance of a hold at 3.75-4.00%, but a 73% chance of a December hike, up from 42% a month ago. The 2-yr is 4.74% and the 10-yr ~5.00% before the open.
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Mon, Oct 26 · Credit & the economy
Central-bank week. The Fed (two-day FOMC from Tue Oct 27, decision Wed), ECB, Bank of Japan and Bank of Canada all meet this week. The 10-yr Treasury is just below 5% after three straight weekly declines.
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Sun, Oct 25 · Earnings
American Express. Q3 EPS was $4.68 (vs $4.47 est. and $4.14 a year ago) on revenue of $20.06B. FY26 EPS guidance is now $17.60-17.90. Amex plans to cut ~5% of its workforce (~3,900 roles, $336M charge) to "reduce layers." Separately, the Fed and OCC fined it $350M over AML failures, with no change to guidance (American Banker, Oct 23).
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