Sunday, November 1, 2026 · Issue No. 9 · 1 min readDownload PDF
BNPL earnings, the midterms and a jobs report ahead
A heavy week of BNPL and fintech earnings lands alongside the midterms and an October jobs report that could lock in a December Fed hike.
Top 3 if you read nothing else
- BNPL and fintech earnings dominate the week: Block and Upstart report Tuesday, Sezzle Wednesday and Affirm Thursday, the first reads on consumer credit since the Fed held.[1–2]
- Friday's October jobs report and UMich sentiment will shape whether the Fed hikes at its Dec 8-9 meeting, after Musalem said firming is needed "soon."[3–4]
- Amex hired U.S. Bank's risk chief Jodi Richard to run global risk and compliance, weeks after a $350 million anti-money-laundering penalty.[5]
Week ahead A packed week for fintech and data. Block, Upstart, Shopify, Toast, Marqeta, Oportun and Fiserv report Tuesday, Sezzle on Wednesday and Affirm on Thursday. Tuesday is also the midterm elections (markets open as usual) and September JOLTS job openings; ISM manufacturing comes Monday and ISM services plus the Treasury's quarterly refunding plan on Wednesday. Friday brings the October jobs report and the preliminary UMich sentiment read, the biggest tests yet for a December rate hike after a Fed official said Friday that firming is needed soon. Apple reports Monday after the close, a check on the AI-led tech sell-off that ended October.
Markets · Friday close, Oct 30
- SPY-1.59%
- QQQ-3.16%
- VIX+12.91%
- 10-yr-6.0 bp
- Capital One-2.06%
- Synchrony-2.10%
- Affirm-1.74%
- Block-0.65%
Nov 3
Midterm elections
Block & Upstart report
Nov 5
Affirm reports
Sezzle Nov 4
Nov 6
October jobs report
plus UMich sentiment
3.75-4.00%
Fed funds range
Dec 8-9 meeting
Banking
Amex risk chief
Amex named Jodi Richard, U.S. Bank's chief risk officer since 2018, as chief risk officer and head of global risk and compliance, effective Jan 25, 2027, reporting to CEO Stephen Squeri. It follows a $350M civil penalty and Fed and OCC actions this month over anti-money-laundering failures; current CRO Doug Tabish moves to run enterprise shared services.[5]
Rate path
St. Louis Fed's Musalem said Friday that "additional firming of monetary policy will be necessary, and soon," which puts more weight on Friday's jobs report before the Dec 8-9 meeting.[4]
Company watch
Block
Reports Tue Nov 3 after the close; consensus is about $1.03 EPS on $6.65B revenue. Watch Cash App lending and Afterpay volumes.[1]
Upstart, Oportun
Both report Tue Nov 3: reads on AI underwriting and near-prime installment credit quality.[1]
Sezzle
Reports Wed Nov 4.[1]
Market recap as of Friday close, Oct 30
| Rates & alternatives | Last | Day | 30d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-yr Treasury | 4.56% | -5 bp | -25 bp | +108 bp |
| 10-yr Treasury | 4.93% | -6.0 bp | -28 bp | +95 bp |
| 2s/10s curve | +37 bp | -6 bp | -3 bp | -13 bp |
| TLT (20+ yr) | $81.31 | +0.20% | +3.3% | -11.5% |
| SGOV (T-bills) | $100.40 | +0.02% | -0.3% | -0.3% |
| Inv. grade (LQD) | $103.85 | -0.36% | +1.3% | -8.0% |
| High yield (HYG) | $77.03 | -0.71% | -0.7% | -5.1% |
| Dollar (UUP) | $29.05 | +0.03% | +1.2% | +4.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | $356.15 | -3.37% | -6.3% | -1.6% |
| WTI oil (USO) | $169.08 | +0.53% | +11.3% | +135.5% |
| Bitcoin | $77,374 | +0.77% | -7.9% | -32.7% |
| Banks & card | Last | Day | 30d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials (XLF) | $56.58 | -0.63% | +3.5% | +7.9% |
| Banks (KBE) | $65.70 | -1.14% | +0.8% | +15.1% |
| Regional (KRE) | $72.00 | -1.18% | +0.8% | +17.8% |
| JPMorgan (JPM) | $337.64 | -1.73% | -1.3% | +10.7% |
| Citi (C) | $121.87 | -3.09% | -8.8% | +20.6% |
| Capital One | $204.44 | -2.06% | +2.5% | -8.4% |
| Amex (AXP) | $319.42 | -1.33% | +3.8% | -11.6% |
| Synchrony (SYF) | $75.35 | -2.10% | +4.1% | +0.5% |
| BFH | $103.41 | -2.13% | +1.2% | +55.4% |
| Atlanticus (ATLC) | $93.46 | -4.78% | +1.6% | +60.0% |
| OneMain (OMF) | $56.55 | -4.70% | -0.5% | -1.3% |
| Fintech & BNPL | Last | Day | 30d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fintech (FINX) | $23.91 | -1.40% | -4.9% | -30.5% |
| Fintech (ARKF) | $42.14 | -5.00% | -8.9% | -27.4% |
| Payments (IPAY) | $49.09 | +0.37% | +3.3% | -12.6% |
| Affirm (AFRM) | $73.54 | -1.74% | +4.9% | -4.6% |
| Block (XYZ) | $76.45 | -0.65% | +1.5% | -4.6% |
| PayPal (PYPL) | $56.87 | -0.14% | +4.6% | -25.4% |
| Klarna (KLAR) | $13.29 | -2.64% | +5.3% | -66.5% |
| SoFi (SOFI) | $16.77 | -4.77% | +2.8% | -46.8% |
| Upstart (UPST) | $23.05 | -7.21% | -1.6% | -54.3% |
| Sezzle (SEZL) | $134.88 | +0.76% | +22.1% | +87.4% |
| Equities | Last | Day | 30d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,580.07 | -1.82% | -1.8% | +9.9% |
| SPY | $757.12 | -1.59% | -1.5% | +10.2% |
| Nasdaq Comp. | 25,437.00 | -2.86% | -5.6% | +7.0% |
| QQQ | $692.74 | -3.16% | -6.4% | +9.9% |
| Dow (DIA) | $517.65 | -0.97% | +0.7% | +8.1% |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | $279.82 | -1.48% | -0.2% | +12.2% |
| Semis (SOXX) | $474.50 | -7.66% | -16.6% | +56.4% |
| Cons. disc. (XLY) | $115.50 | -0.60% | +5.4% | -4.1% |
| Retail (XRT) | $88.72 | -0.33% | +8.1% | +4.6% |
| VIX | 19.42 | +12.91% | +20.2% | +21.8% |
Markets closed for the weekend. Interactive Brokers late-Friday quotes (Oct 30) for ETFs and stocks; S&P 500, Nasdaq and VIX are Friday closes from Yahoo Finance (1). Day change is vs Thursday's close. 30D/1Y compare with the weekly open nearest Sep 28, 2026 and late Oct 2025, price only. 2-yr is the Treasury close of Oct 30 (8). Dollar via UUP, WTI via USO; Bitcoin vs 24h.
Previous issueSat, Oct 31 · Tech sell-off closes October as card lenders lagNext issueMon, Nov 2 · Bank conduct and payment fees lead a busy week
Sources are linked in every issue. Confirm figures against the original filings before relying on them.