Saturday, October 31, 2026 · Issue No. 8 · 2 min readDownload PDF
Tech sell-off closes October as card lenders lag
A tech-led sell-off closed out October, with the Nasdaq down about 5% for the month. A Fed official said rate hikes are needed soon, and card lenders lagged banks on Friday. Visa and Mastercard's plan to drop the honor-all-cards rule is drawing doubts that merchants will actually turn premium cards away.
Top 3 if you read nothing else
- Stocks closed October with a steep sell-off on Friday: the S&P 500 fell 1.8% and the Nasdaq 2.9% as Amazon, Alphabet and Intel results revived worries about AI spending, leaving the Nasdaq down about 5% for the month.[1–2]
- St. Louis Fed President Musalem said "additional firming of monetary policy will be necessary, and soon," adding to market bets on a December hike from the current 3.75%-4.00% range.[3]
- Card and consumer-lending stocks fell harder than banks overall on Friday, with OneMain and Atlanticus down nearly 5% and Citi, Capital One and Synchrony down 2-3%.[1]
Market open US markets are closed for the weekend; these are Friday's closing moves. The S&P 500 fell 1.8% to 7,580 and the Nasdaq 2.9% to 25,437, with chips (SOXX) down 7.7% after Intel's outlook sent its shares down about 30%. The VIX rose 13% to 19.4, while the 2-yr Treasury yield fell to 4.56% and the 10-yr to about 4.93%. Gold fell about 3% to a one-year low.
Markets · Friday close, Oct 30
- SPY-1.59%
- QQQ-3.16%
- VIX+12.91%
- 10-yr-6.0 bp
- Capital One-2.06%
- Synchrony-2.10%
- Affirm-1.74%
- Block-0.65%
-1.8%
S&P 500, Friday
Nasdaq -2.9%
-5.2%
Nasdaq in October
worst month since Mar 2025
4.56%
2-yr Treasury
Oct 30 close, -5 bp
3.75-4.00%
Fed funds range
Dec 8-9 hike expected
Banking
Fed: hikes "soon"
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem told the Shadow Open Market Committee on Oct 30: "I judge that additional firming of monetary policy will be necessary, and soon." The Fed held at 3.75%-4.00% this week after raising in September, with two members dissenting for a hike; markets expect a move at the Dec 8-9 meeting.[3]
Card lenders lag
In Friday's sell-off, bank ETFs fell about 1% (KBE -1.1%, KRE -1.2%), but consumer lenders fell harder: OneMain -4.7%, Atlanticus -4.8%, Citi -3.1%, Synchrony -2.1%, Capital One -2.1%. Fintech lenders were weaker still, with SoFi -4.8% and Upstart -7.2% (Interactive Brokers late-Friday quotes; see recap).[1]
Cards & payments
Honor-all-cards
Visa and Mastercard's proposed settlement of roughly 20 years of merchant litigation would drop the rule that merchants accepting one of their cards must accept all, including higher-fee premium cards, and give more room to surcharge them. It still needs a judge's final approval. Some merchants and advisers call it an "empty benefit" because premium cardholders tend to spend more; Amex, not a party, responded "Good luck."[4]
Paze at Elavon
U.S. Bank's Elavon says the bank-owned Paze wallet is "ready to do pilots" with merchants, as Early Warning pushes Paze to the largest US merchants first.[5]
Underwriting & fraud tech
Overwatch Data
Raised a $15M Series A led by Mouro Capital, with Visa Ventures and Capital One Ventures investing strategically, for AI-driven fraud and risk intelligence.[6]
Week ahead
Affirm earnings Nov 5
Affirm reports fiscal Q1 on Nov 5, its first print since the Sam's Club deal and the Walmart loss to Klarna; Affirm shares fell 1.7% Friday.[7]
FOMC Dec 8-9
Markets expect a hike at the next meeting after Musalem's comments and two hawkish dissents this week.[3]
Market recap as of Friday close, Oct 30
| Rates & alternatives | Last | Day | 30d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-yr Treasury | 4.56% | -5 bp | -25 bp | +108 bp |
| 10-yr Treasury | 4.93% | -6.0 bp | -28 bp | +95 bp |
| 2s/10s curve | +37 bp | -6 bp | -3 bp | -13 bp |
| TLT (20+ yr) | $81.31 | +0.20% | +3.3% | -11.5% |
| SGOV (T-bills) | $100.40 | +0.02% | -0.3% | -0.3% |
| Inv. grade (LQD) | $103.85 | -0.36% | +1.3% | -8.0% |
| High yield (HYG) | $77.03 | -0.71% | -0.7% | -5.1% |
| Dollar (UUP) | $29.05 | +0.03% | +1.2% | +4.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | $356.15 | -3.37% | -6.3% | -1.6% |
| WTI oil (USO) | $169.08 | +0.53% | +11.3% | +135.5% |
| Bitcoin | $77,374 | +0.77% | -7.9% | -32.7% |
| Banks & card | Last | Day | 30d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials (XLF) | $56.58 | -0.63% | +3.5% | +7.9% |
| Banks (KBE) | $65.70 | -1.14% | +0.8% | +15.1% |
| Regional (KRE) | $72.00 | -1.18% | +0.8% | +17.8% |
| JPMorgan (JPM) | $337.64 | -1.73% | -1.3% | +10.7% |
| Citi (C) | $121.87 | -3.09% | -8.8% | +20.6% |
| Capital One | $204.44 | -2.06% | +2.5% | -8.4% |
| Amex (AXP) | $319.42 | -1.33% | +3.8% | -11.6% |
| Synchrony (SYF) | $75.35 | -2.10% | +4.1% | +0.5% |
| BFH | $103.41 | -2.13% | +1.2% | +55.4% |
| Atlanticus (ATLC) | $93.46 | -4.78% | +1.6% | +60.0% |
| OneMain (OMF) | $56.55 | -4.70% | -0.5% | -1.3% |
| Fintech & BNPL | Last | Day | 30d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fintech (FINX) | $23.91 | -1.40% | -4.9% | -30.5% |
| Fintech (ARKF) | $42.14 | -5.00% | -8.9% | -27.4% |
| Payments (IPAY) | $49.09 | +0.37% | +3.3% | -12.6% |
| Affirm (AFRM) | $73.54 | -1.74% | +4.9% | -4.6% |
| Block (XYZ) | $76.45 | -0.65% | +1.5% | -4.6% |
| PayPal (PYPL) | $56.87 | -0.14% | +4.6% | -25.4% |
| Klarna (KLAR) | $13.29 | -2.64% | +5.3% | -66.5% |
| SoFi (SOFI) | $16.77 | -4.77% | +2.8% | -46.8% |
| Upstart (UPST) | $23.05 | -7.21% | -1.6% | -54.3% |
| Sezzle (SEZL) | $134.88 | +0.76% | +22.1% | +87.4% |
| Equities | Last | Day | 30d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,580.07 | -1.82% | -1.8% | +9.9% |
| SPY | $757.12 | -1.59% | -1.5% | +10.2% |
| Nasdaq Comp. | 25,437.00 | -2.86% | -5.6% | +7.0% |
| QQQ | $692.74 | -3.16% | -6.4% | +9.9% |
| Dow (DIA) | $517.65 | -0.97% | +0.7% | +8.1% |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | $279.82 | -1.48% | -0.2% | +12.2% |
| Semis (SOXX) | $474.50 | -7.66% | -16.6% | +56.4% |
| Cons. disc. (XLY) | $115.50 | -0.60% | +5.4% | -4.1% |
| Retail (XRT) | $88.72 | -0.33% | +8.1% | +4.6% |
| VIX | 19.42 | +12.91% | +20.2% | +21.8% |
Markets closed for the weekend. Interactive Brokers late-Friday quotes (Oct 30) for ETFs and stocks; S&P 500, Nasdaq and VIX are Friday closes from Yahoo Finance (1). Day change is vs Thursday's close. 30D/1Y compare with the weekly open nearest Sep 28, 2026 and late Oct 2025, price only. 2-yr is the Treasury close of Oct 30 (8). Dollar via UUP, WTI via USO; Bitcoin vs 24h.
Sources
- Yahoo Finance: October closes with brutal sell-off (Oct 30)
- Yahoo Finance: tech sell-off, Intel, gold and bitcoin (Oct 30)
- Reuters via 93.3: Fed's Musalem says a rate hike is needed soon (Oct 30)
- Payments Dive: Will ditching the honor-all-cards rule matter? (Oct 29)
- Payments Dive: Elavon pursues Paze, agentic commerce (Oct 29)
- FinTech Global: weekly funding round-up (Oct 30)
- Affirm earnings Nov 5
- U.S. Treasury: daily par yields
Previous issueFri, Oct 30 · OneMain grows loans as court strikes down debit fee capNext issueSun, Nov 1 · BNPL earnings, the midterms and a jobs report ahead
Sources are linked in every issue. Confirm figures against the original filings before relying on them.