The Weekly Statement · Saturday, November 7, 2026 · Issue No. 15 · 5 min readDownload PDF
Stocks tumble, hiring surges and fintechs raise their outlooks
Thursday's 4.4% drop left the S&P 500 down 2.7% on the week, while October payrolls more than doubled forecasts and Block and Sezzle raised guidance.
Top 3 if you read nothing else
- The S&P 500 fell 4.4% on Thursday as the Nasdaq had its steepest one-day drop in 19 months and slid into a correction, and the index ended the week down 2.7% at 7,376.86.[1–2]
- Employers added 165,000 jobs in October, more than double forecasts, as unemployment fell to 4.1% and the odds of a December Fed rate hike climbed to 78%.[3–5]
- Democrats won the Senate on Tuesday and appear poised to take the House, setting up years of oversight for banks while bipartisan 10% card rate cap bills remain in play.[6–7]
Statement summary The S&P 500 ended Friday at 7,376.86, up 0.3% on the day and down 2.7% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 24,579.42 and the Dow at 51,285.73, down 3.4% and 0.9% for the week. The VIX dropped 9% Friday to 25.64, and the 2-yr and 10-yr Treasury yields finished at 4.51% and 4.86% after the jobs report. Among card and fintech names, Block gained 12.1% for the week and Sezzle 10.8%, while Affirm lost 7.3%, Synchrony 2.1% and Capital One 1.5%.
Markets · last trade, Fri Nov 6
- SPY+0.48%
- QQQ+1.62%
- VIX-9.01%
- 10-yr+2 bp
- Capital One-0.83%
- Synchrony-0.45%
- Affirm-1.85%
- Block+1.53%
-2.7%
S&P 500, week
close 7,376.86
165K
October jobs
vs. ~70K expected
4.86%
10-yr, Fri close
2-yr at 4.51%
+12.1%
Block, week
after raising guidance
Opening balance
Where it began
The S&P 500 opened the week at 7,580.07 and the Nasdaq Composite at 25,436.99, based on Friday's closes and the weekly losses reported by AP.[1]
The calendar
Carried over
Sen. Elizabeth Warren had asked the Justice Department to open a criminal probe of Bank of America over its $1.21 billion anti-money laundering penalty, with a reply requested by Nov. 12. The Fed could seek a rehearing within 45 days after the Eighth Circuit vacated its 21-cent debit interchange cap on Oct. 26, and the FTC and eight states had sued Toast over hidden fees.[13–15]
Charges
Thursday's rout
The S&P 500 dropped 4.4% to 7,353.73 on Thursday and the Nasdaq slid 5.5% into correction territory, with all 11 S&P sectors lower and the VIX up 69.7% to 28.18. The Philadelphia semiconductor index lost more than 12%.[2]
Block's settlement
Block reached a tentative agreement to pay $764 million, net of $200 million in credit for earlier settlements, to resolve Justice Department charges over Bank Secrecy Act and anti-money laundering failures. The charges are deferred for three years, and the company warned that losses could exceed what it has set aside.[16]
Rate caps return
Affirm's slide
Credits
Hiring surge
Fintech results
Block lifted its 2026 gross profit guidance to $12.626 billion as consumer lending originations, led by Cash App Borrow and Afterpay, climbed 40% to $19.0 billion; its shares gained 12.1% for the week. Sezzle raised its 2026 revenue growth forecast to about 42.5% after third-quarter revenue grew 42.6%, and its shares rose 10.8%.[8, 11, 17]
Near-prime credit
Mood lifts
The University of Michigan's preliminary November consumer sentiment index climbed to 51.0 from 48.0 in October, a gain of about 6%, though it remains 10% below February. Year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.3% from 4.7%.[19]
Swipe-fee bill stalls
The Credit Card Competition Act loses both of its lead Senate sponsors next year, with Sen. Roger Marshall defeated and Sen. Dick Durbin retiring. Backers may try to attach it to lame-duck spending bills, but the odds look long.[20]
Interest earned
Installments everywhere
Pay-over-time is moving from fintech apps into banks: equipifi forecasts that bank and credit union BNPL volume will rise 75% from a year earlier between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, with users up 60%. The forecast draws on more than 100 institutions and 4 million households.[21]
Merchant-paid 0%
About one million products in the Affirm app now carry brand-funded promotions, and CEO Max Levchin expects 0% volume to grow as Affirm builds tools for AI shopping agents. Average Affirm loan terms run under 98 days.[22]
Closing balance
Tuesday, Nov. 10
Midweek
U.S. stock markets stay open Wednesday for Veterans Day, though the BLS has no releases scheduled that day. Weekly jobless claims and October existing-home sales follow on Thursday, and Nu Holdings is expected to report.[26]
Friday, Nov. 13
The October producer price index arrives at 8:30 a.m. ET, and Japan's three megabanks, Mitsubishi UFJ, Sumitomo Mitsui and Mizuho, report results.[26]
In Washington
Warren wants the Justice Department's reply on Bank of America by Nov. 12, and CFPB nominee Brian Johnson still needs a Senate floor vote before Congress adjourns. Wells Fargo's Fernando Rivas expects a dealmaking rush through 2027 as companies try to use what they see as a regulatory window.[13, 27–28]
Worth a read
Seven themes
Marc Rubinstein boils more than 300 Net Interest posts down to seven themes, from AI as a financing story to banks that keep lending while consumer sentiment sits near record lows. A compact map of where finance is heading.[29]
Who sets card APRs
In a New York Fed Liberty Street Economics post, Kyle Herkenhoff and Juan M. Morelli study about 14 million new card accounts and find that lenders with large local market shares pass less of a drop in funding costs through to offer rates. After the Fed's surprise cut in January 2008, pass-through was about 20% lower in a lender's high-share markets.[30]
Market recap as of last trade, Fri Nov 6
| Rates & alternatives | Last | Day | 30d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-yr Treasury | 4.51% | +5 bp | -30 bp | +103 bp |
| 10-yr Treasury | 4.86% | +2 bp | -37 bp | +87 bp |
| 2s/10s curve | +35 bp | -3 bp | -7 bp | -16 bp |
| TLT (20+ yr) | $81.85 | -0.10% | +3.9% | -11.0% |
| SGOV (T-bills) | $100.49 | +0.04% | -0.3% | -0.3% |
| Inv. grade (LQD) | $104.53 | -0.12% | +2.0% | -7.4% |
| High yield (HYG) | $77.20 | -0.10% | -0.6% | -5.0% |
| Dollar (UUP) | $28.95 | +0.10% | +0.8% | +3.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | $373.37 | -0.56% | -1.7% | +3.0% |
| WTI oil (USO) | $148.21 | +0.00% | -2.4% | +106.5% |
| Bitcoin | $75,800 | +0.03% | -9.8% | -34.2% |
| Banks & card | Last | Day | 30d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials (XLF) | $57.11 | -0.68% | +4.4% | +8.9% |
| Banks (KBE) | $65.89 | -0.50% | +1.1% | +15.5% |
| Regional (KRE) | $72.02 | -0.40% | +0.9% | +17.8% |
| JPMorgan (JPM) | $335.38 | -0.58% | -1.9% | +9.9% |
| Citi (C) | $119.19 | +0.62% | -10.8% | +18.0% |
| Capital One | $202.14 | -0.83% | +1.4% | -9.4% |
| Amex (AXP) | $321.40 | -1.10% | +4.4% | -11.1% |
| Synchrony (SYF) | $73.74 | -0.45% | +1.8% | -1.7% |
| BFH | $101.83 | -0.72% | -0.3% | +53.0% |
| Atlanticus (ATLC) | $91.30 | -5.34% | -0.8% | +56.1% |
| OneMain (OMF) | $55.27 | -2.75% | -2.8% | -3.5% |
| Fintech & BNPL | Last | Day | 30d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fintech (FINX) | $24.18 | -0.04% | -3.9% | -29.8% |
| Fintech (ARKF) | $41.55 | +0.58% | -10.2% | -28.3% |
| Payments (IPAY) | $50.39 | +0.06% | +6.0% | -10.4% |
| Affirm (AFRM) | $68.37 | -1.85% | -2.4% | -11.3% |
| Block (XYZ) | $85.33 | +1.53% | +13.5% | +6.6% |
| PayPal (PYPL) | $59.03 | +0.12% | +8.6% | -22.5% |
| Klarna (KLAR) | $13.60 | +0.52% | +7.9% | -65.7% |
| SoFi (SOFI) | $16.22 | +1.12% | -0.5% | -48.4% |
| Upstart (UPST) | $21.78 | -1.63% | -6.9% | -56.8% |
| Sezzle (SEZL) | $150.00 | -3.23% | +35.8% | +108.3% |
| LendingClub (HAPN) | $16.00 | -1.11% | +7.5% | -13.8% |
| Equities | Last | Day | 30d | 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $736.53 | +0.48% | -4.3% | +7.1% |
| QQQ | $657.50 | +1.62% | -11.1% | +4.3% |
| Dow (DIA) | $512.52 | -0.34% | -0.3% | +6.9% |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | $273.75 | +1.02% | -2.4% | +9.7% |
| Mid caps (MDY) | $657.79 | +0.63% | -0.7% | +12.0% |
| Equal-wt S&P (RSP) | $216.03 | -0.39% | +2.7% | +16.0% |
| Semis (SOXX) | $137.20 | +4.02% | -29.8% | +34.9% |
| Cons. disc. (XLY) | $117.87 | +0.20% | +7.6% | -1.9% |
| Cons. staples (XLP) | $89.90 | -1.48% | +9.8% | +18.5% |
| Retail (XRT) | $89.51 | -1.71% | +9.2% | +5.6% |
| VIX | 25.64 | -9.01% | +58.7% | +60.9% |
IBKR last trades, Fri Nov 6 (indices and VIX at the close, 15-min delay; some stocks include after-hours to 8 p.m. ET); day change vs Thursday. Yields: Treasury par, Nov 6. UUP, USO proxies; Bitcoin 7:54 a.m. ET Sat. Price only; SOXX split-adjusted.
Sources
- AP via Yahoo Finance: How major US stock indexes fared Friday, 11/6/2026 (Nov 6)
- Zacks via Yahoo Finance: Stock market news for Nov 6, 2026 (Nov 6)
- BLS: The Employment Situation, October 2026 (Nov 6)
- Yahoo Finance: The US added 165,000 jobs in October, blowing past expectations (Nov 6)
- Reuters via Investing.com: Strong October jobs report sends yields higher (Nov 6)
- American Banker: Democrats sweep Congress, setting up years of oversight for banks (Nov 4)
- Bloomberg via The Star: The issue of high credit card rates in America (Nov 2)
- Block: Q3 2026 shareholder letter, SEC 8-K (Nov 3)
- Upstart: Q3 2026 results, SEC 8-K (Nov 3)
- Oportun: Q3 2026 results, SEC 8-K (Nov 3)
- Sezzle: Third quarter 2026 results (Nov 4)
- Investing.com: Affirm beats, raises full-year GMV outlook (Nov 6)
- Banking Dive: Warren urges DOJ to probe BofA's AML issues (Oct 30)
- Bank Policy Institute: BPInsights (Oct 31)
- Payments Dive: FTC, states sue Toast over fees (Oct 29)
- Payments Dive: Block reaches $964M DOJ pact (Nov 4)
- Interactive Brokers: daily closes, Oct. 30 to Nov. 6, 2026
- U.S. Treasury: Daily par yield curve rates, November 2026
- University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers: November 2026 preliminary (Nov 6)
- Payments Dive: Will a 'blue wave' push the CCCA? (Nov 5)
- equipifi: Holiday BNPL volume forecast (Nov 5)
- GuruFocus via Yahoo Finance: Affirm Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings call highlights (Nov 5)
- Banking Dive: OppFi withdraws regulatory applications to buy bank (Nov 4)
- BLS: Consumer Price Index release schedule
- New York Fed: Q3 2026 Household Debt and Credit Report release on Nov. 10 (Nov 4)
- Stock Titan: Earnings calendar for the week of Nov. 9, 2026 (Nov 6)
- Banking Dive: Midterm results may curb bank-friendly legislation (Nov 4)
- Banking Dive: Wells Fargo exec sees 'now or never' M&A attitude (Nov 5)
- Net Interest (Marc Rubinstein): Follow the Money (Oct 30)
- NY Fed Liberty Street Economics: How market position shapes credit card interest rates (Nov 4)
Previous issueFri, Nov 6 · Hiring beats after a rout, lifting December hike oddsNext issueSun, Nov 8 · Fintechs rush for bank charters as Democrats take the Senate
Sources are linked in every issue. Confirm figures against the original filings before relying on them.